Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Taleb narrates an ancient Greek anecdote involving Croesus, the legendarily wealthy king of Lydia, and Solon, a morally righteous Greek legislator. When Solon visits Croesus, he expects Solon to revere his wealth. This does not happen, and Croesus becomes increasingly agitated. He equates his riches with happiness and asks Solon if his wealth does not indicate that he, Croesus, is the happiest man in the world. Solon replies that fortunes can change at a moment’s notice; the transient nature of all things suggests that it is wise to expect that one’s happiness will also be transient. Only those to whom God has promised happiness have any legitimate claim to being happy. For the rest, it is fleeting. Taleb cites famous baseball player and manager Yogi Berra’s famous aphorism, “It ain’t over until it’s over” (34). Taleb connects Berra’s remark with the lesson of the story of Croesus: one should recognize the transient nature of life and that until one is dead, change is inevitable.

Taleb introduces the general trajectory of Part 1, noting that he intends to examine how situations change and to what degree luck plays a role.